in Palestine by Dr Gideon Polya. via Counter Currents. Org
24/04/2026
Based on data and methodology previously published in The Lancet it is estimated that 875,000 Gazans died from violence (175,000) and imposed deprivation (700,000) over 2 years of Zionist Israeli killing. However The Lancet has just published an April 2026 paper that demands correction because it gives an undercounting estimate of 134,241 Gaza deaths over 2 years from violence (120,551) and deprivation (counted as 13,690 excess deaths from deprivation). Mainstream media report about 70,000 Gaza deaths.
As described in this April 2026 paper in The Lancet, Spagat et al. attempted to estimate Gaza deaths in the first 456 days of the Gaza Massacre by means of a household survey: “The Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) has provided regular updates to their violent death toll for the Gaza Strip following Oct 7, 2023, but these reports have attracted both criticism and support. Independent estimates of both violent and non-violent deaths were needed… We conducted a population-representative household survey, the Gaza Mortality Survey, between Dec 30, 2024, and Jan 5, 2025… We estimated 75,200 violent deaths (95% CI 63,600–86,800) between Oct 7, 2023, and Jan 5, 2025 [456 days]… We also estimated 16,300 non-violent deaths (12,300–20,200), of which 8,540 (4,540–12, 500) represent excess deaths above pre-conflict projections. The MoH figure for this period (49,090 violent deaths) was 34·7% below our central estimate… violent deaths have substantially exceeded official figures … Non-violent excess deaths, although substantial, are lower than some projections have suggested” [1].
These data indicate 75,200 violent deaths, 16,300 non-violent deaths and 8,570 non-violent excess deaths over 456 days. Spagat et al. took violent deaths (75,200) plus non-violent excess deaths (8,850) to yield a total of 83,770 Gaza deaths from violence and deprivation over 456 days. Assuming the same rate of killing, one estimates (83,770 x 731 days)/456 days = 134,241 Israeli-imposed Gaza deaths over the first 2 years, this including 120,551 violent deaths and 13,690 non-violent excess deaths from deprivation.
The estimate by Spagat et al. of a total of 134,241 Gaza deaths over 2 years is nearly 2 times greater than the estimate of 69,750 killed in 2 years as reported by the Gaza MoH and Western media including the UK BBC [2]. However Spagat et al. undercount Gaza deaths over 2 years from violence by a factor of 175,000/120,551 = 1.5-fold, undercount deaths from imposed deprivation over 2 years by a factor of 700,000//13,690 = 51-fold, and undercount total deaths from violence and deprivation over 2 years by a factor of 875,000/ 134,241 = 6.5-fold. Note that the violent killing was substantially reduced after the mid-October 2025 Ceasefire (i.e. after 2 years of killing) and deaths from deprivation continued but to an unknown extent.
The estimations and assertions by Spagat et al. re (a) non-violent Gaza deaths, (b) violent Gaza deaths, and (c) Gaza “deaths from violence and deprivation” (Google this phrase) are at variance with other expert estimates published in The Lancet as set out below.
(a). Non-violent Gaza deaths. Spagat et al. “estimated 16,300 non-violent deaths” but this at shocking variance with global annual mortality data [3]. Thus 16,300 non-violent deaths in 456 days corresponds to (16,300 deaths x 731 days)/456 days = 26,130 non-violent deaths in 2 years or 13,065 non-violent deaths per year. Assuming a pre-7 October 2023 population of 2.4 million Gazans this indicates a Gaza non-violent mortality rate of (13,065 x 100 per year)/2.4 million = 0.544% per year. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in 2024 there were 187,268 deaths [3] out of a 2024 Australian population of 27.2 million [4] i.e. a mortality rate of (187,268 x 100 per year)/27.2 million = 0.688% per year (it should be noted that these are almost all non-violent deaths, there being 264 homicides in Australian in 2024-2025 [5]). Gaza has been largely demolished by bombing and the population has been subject to 2.5 years of horrific and deadly deprivation in relation to water, food, shelter, sanitation, hygiene, sewerage, clothing, employment, education, medicine, and medical services. In stark contrast, Australia is extremely prosperous, peaceful and has one of the world’s best universal health care systems. Yet Spagat et al. astonishingly assert that the non-violent mortality rate is lower in devastated Gaza than in rich and peaceful Australia. The life expectancy is 84.34 years (Australia, #10 in the world) as compared to 77.42 years (State of Palestine, #93, before 7 October 2023) [6]. Guillot et al. “Life expectancy in the Gaza Strip decreased by 34·9 years during the first 12 months of the war, about half (–46·3%) the prewar level of 75·5 years” [7]. The UK Guardian has reported shocking Gaza children survey results (12 December 2024): “The sense of being doomed has become pervasive. Almost all the children (96%) felt their death was imminent, and 49% actually wished to die, a feeling that was much more prevalent among boys (72%) than girls (26%)” [8].
(b). Violent Gaza deaths. Spagat et al. “estimated 75,200 violent deaths (95% CI 63,600–86,800) between Oct 7, 2023, and Jan 5, 2025” [456 days] [11. Assuming the same rate of killing, this implies (75,000 x 731 days)/456 days = 120,551 violent deaths in 2 years. However Jamaluddine et al. estimated that 64,260 Gazans had died violently between 7 October 2023 and 30 June 2024 (day 269 of the killing) and hence (assuming the same rate of killing) that 64,260 x 731)/269 = 175,000 Gazans had died violently by 7 October 2025 (day 731 i.e. after 2 years of killing), 1.5 times more than estimated by Spagat et al. in their analysis [9].
(c). Gaza “deaths from violence and deprivation”. Spagat et al.: “Information on non-violent excess deaths in the Gaza Strip remains scant. One analysis [Khatib et al. [10]] projected that non-violent deaths could be four times as high as violent deaths, whereas physicians working in the Gaza Strip claimed tens of thousands of deaths due to starvation and its complications. However, these estimates do not have empirical foundation” [1]. This assertion by Sagat et al. is contradicted by a huge body of evidence. Fundamentally, whether a child is killed by bombs, bullets and bashing or by imposed deprivation, the death is just as final and the perpetrators just as culpable. Thus avoidable deaths (excess deaths) from deprivation are readily determined from 1950 onwards UN Population Division demographic data as the difference between the actual deaths in a country and the deaths expected for a peaceful, decently-governed country with same demographics (birth rate and proportion of children) (see my huge book, Gideon Polya, “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” that includes an avoidable mortality-related history of all countries [11]).
In relation to Gaza, Khatib et.al. applied “a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death” [10] , a position endorsed by eminent UK epidemiologist Professor Devi Sridhar ( chair, Global Health, University of Edinburgh) [12], who has resolutely argued for proper inclusion of massive indirect deaths in assessment of the Gaza dead [12-14]. Indeed an extensive survey by UNHCR Refworld concluded: “In the majority of conflicts since the early 1990s for which good data is available, the burden of indirect deaths was between three and 15 times the number of direct deaths. Variation in the ratio of direct to indirect deaths depends on the pre-conflict level of development of the country, the duration of the fighting, the intensity of combat, access to basic care and services, and humanitarian relief efforts. The lethal burden of armed conflict in 2004–07 was many times greater than the number of direct conflict deaths. A reasonable average estimate would be a ratio of four indirect deaths to one direct death in contemporary conflicts, which would represent at least 200,000 indirect conflict deaths per year, and possibly many more. There may have been up to 400,000 indirect conflict deaths per year in the DRC alone since 2002. Appropriate methods exist to arrive at a more accurate account of the number of indirect deaths in conflict zones; these should be applied systematically wherever possible to individual conflicts” [15]. The wartime ratio of indirect deaths from imposed deprivation to direct, violent deaths ranges from 2 (Iraq War, 1990-2011) to 16 (Afghan War, 2001-2021) [16-23].
In summary, Jamaluddine et al. estimated that 64,260 Gazans had died violently by 30 June 2024 (day 269 of the killing) with this implying (assuming the same rate of killing) that 64,260 x 731)/269 = 175,000 Gazans had died violently by 7 October 2025 (day 731 i.e. after 2 years of killing) [9]. “Conservatively” assuming 4 deaths from imposed deprivation in Gaza for every violent death [10, 12] this indicates 175,000 x 4 = 700,000 non-violent deaths from deprivation and 875,000 Gazans in total killed by violence and imposed deprivation by 7 October 2025 (i.e. in 2 years of killing)[16]. Assuming, in the absence of other data, that the proportions of children, women, and men among indirect deaths mirror those reported by Gaza’s health authorities for violent deaths, the total of 875,000 dead would include about 325,000 children, 207,000 women, and 342,000 men [16]. These figures, however, underestimate child mortality, as they do not account for the extreme vulnerability of children under five, who represent about 70 percent of avoidable deaths from deprivation in impoverished countries [11]. Indeed in early 2025 US President Donald Trump referred to “1.7 million” surviving Gazans and hence 2.5 million -1.7 million = 0.7 million “missing” Gazans [14].
Final comments and conclusions.
In my half-century scientific career I carefully assessed university exam papers, PhD theses, research grant proposals and submitted research papers. However in this instance I am reviewing a paper published in the leading medical journal, The Lancet. It is astonishing that Spagat et al. [1] assert that the non-violent mortality rate is lower in devastated Gaza than in rich and peaceful Australia that has one of the best universal health care systems in the world. In doing so they mistakenly undercount 6.5-fold the 875,000 Gaza deaths from violence and imposed deprivation over the first 2 years of the Gaza Genocide.
The continuing Gaza Holocaust and Gaza Genocide(Gaza demolished and 875,000 Gaza dead from violence and deprivation over 2 years) is a stain on Humanity that simply looks on as the gross human rights violations and killing continue. The least Humanity could do is to accurately bear witness to the atrocity and the US-backed Zionist Israeli mass murder of Palestinian children, mothers, women and men.
Cessation of violence and illegal foreign occupation of Palestine as demanded by the International Court of Justice [24-28] and the civilized world will permit accurate assessment of the human cost of the Gaza Genocide. Decent humanity must (a) inform everyone they can (racist and mendacious Western Mainstream media presstitutes certainly won’t) and (b) urge and apply draconian Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) against US-backed Apartheid Israel and all people, parties, politicians, collectives, companies and countries supporting this genocidally racist Zionazi rogue state.
References.
[1]. Michael Spagat et al., “Violent and non-violent death tolls for the Gaza conflict: new primary evidence from a population-representative field survey”, The Lancet, 14 (4), April 2026: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(25)00522-4/fulltext .
[2]. James Cook, “More than 70,000 killed in Gaza since Israel offensive began, Hamas-run health ministry says”, BBC News, 30 November 2025: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8e97kl240lo .
[3]. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), “Deaths Australia”, 26 September 2025: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/deaths-australia/latest-release .
[4]. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), “Australia’s population by country of birth”, 30 April 2025: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/australias-population-country-birth/jun-2024 .
[5]. Samantha Bricknell and Hannah Miles, ”Homicide in Australia 2024–25”, Australian Institute of Criminology: https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-02/sr58_homicide_in_australia_2024-25.pdf .
[6]. Worldometer, “ Countries ranked by life expectancy (2026)”: https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/ .
[7]. Guillot et al., “Life expectancy losses in the Gaza Strip during the period October, 2023, to September, 2024”, The Lancet, Volume 405, Issue 10477, p478-485, 8 February, 2025: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)02810-1/abstract .
[8]. Julian Borger, “Death feels imminent for 96% of children in Gaza, study finds”, The Guardian, 12 December 2024: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/11/death-feels-imminent-for-96-of-children-in-gaza-study-finds .
[9]. Zeina Jamaluddine, Hanan Abukmail, Sarah Aly, Oona M R Campbell, and Francesco Checchi, “Traumatic injury mortality in the Gaza Strip from Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024: a capture–recapture analysis”, The Lancet, 9 January 2025: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)02678-3/fulltext .
[10]. Rasha Khatib, Martin McKee and Salim Yusuf, “Counting the dead in Gaza: difficult but essential”, The Lancet, Volume 404, Issue 10449, p237-238, 10 July, 2024: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext .
[11]. Gideon Polya, “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”, 2nd edition, Korsgaard Publishing, 2021.
[12]. Devi Sridhar, “Scientists are closing in on the true, horrifying scale of death and disease in Gaza”, The Guardian, 5 September 2024: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/05/scientists-death-disease-gaza-polio-vaccinations-israel.
[13]. Devi Sridhar, “It’s not just bullets and bombs. I have never seen health organisations as worried as they are about disease in Gaza”, Guardian, 29 December 2023: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/29/health-organisations-disease-gaza-population-outbreaks-conflict .
[14]. Kevin Maimann, “’1.7 million’ Palestinians in Gaza? Trump’s statement raises questions about death toll”, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, 22 February 2025: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-gaza-population-relocation-1.7457559 .
[15]. UNHCR, Refworld, “Global burden of armed violence”, 2008: https://www.refworld.org/reference/research/gds/2008/en/64390 .
[16]. Gideon Polya, “Gaza Holocaust: Submission To UN Special Rapporteur Investigation Into Gaza Journalist Deaths & Media Reportage”, Countercurrents, 16 April 2026: https://countercurrents.org/2026/04/gaza-holocaust-submission-to-un-special-rapporteur-investigation-into-gaza-journalist-deaths-media-reportage/ .
[17]. Gideon Polya, “Iraq Invasion 20th Anniversary: 5 Million Dead In Iraqi Holocaust”, 19 March 2023: https://countercurrents.org/2023/03/iraq-invasion-20th-anniversary-5-million-dead-in-iraqi-holocaust/ .
[18]. Gideon Polya, “Afghan Holocaust – The Awful Truth Versus US Alliance Lies”, Countercurrents, 22 August 2021: https://countercurrents.org/2021/08/afghan-holocaust-the-awful-truth-versus-us-alliance-lies/ .
[19]. “Australian mainstream media lying & censorship”: https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammedialying/australian-mainstream-media-lying-censorshp .
[20]. Gideon Polya, “Post-9/11 US-imposed Muslim Holocaust and Muslim Genocide”, Korsgaard Publishing, 2020.
[21]. Gideon Polya, “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History”, 3rd edition, Korsgaard Publishing, 2022.
[22]. “Report genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/reportgenocide/ .
[23]. Gideon Polya, “Racist Mainstream Ignores “US-Imposed Post-9/11 Muslim Holocaust & Muslim Genocide”, Countercurrents, 17 July 2020: https://countercurrents.org/2020/07/racist-mainstream-ignores-us-imposed-post-9-11-muslim-holocaust-muslim-genocide/ .
[24]. Richard Falk, “Why the ICJ Ruling on Israel’s Occupation of Palestine Matters”, Countercurrents, 26 July 2024: https://countercurrents.org/2024/07/why-the-icj-ruling-on-israels-occupation-of-palestine-matters/ .
[25]. Gideon Polya, “Breakthrough: ICJ Rules Israel’s Occupation Of Occupied Palestinian Territory Unlawful”, Countercurrents, 20 July 2024: https://countercurrents.org/2024/07/breakthrough-icj-rules-israels-occupation-of-occupied-palestinian-territory-unlawful/ .
[26]. International Court of Justice, “Summary of the Advisory Opinion of 19 July 2024”: https://www.icj-cij.org/node/204176 .
[27]. UN Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner, “Experts hail ICJ declaration on illegality of Israel’s presence in the occupied Palestinian territory as “historic” for Palestinians and international law”, 30 July 2024: https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/07/experts-hail-icj-declaration-illegality-israels-presence-occupied .
[28]. Gideon Polya, “ICJ Gaza Peace Plan Versus Racist Peace Plan Of Genocidal War Criminals Trump & Netanyahu”, Countercurrents, 4 October 2025:https://countercurrents.org/2025/10/icj-gaza-peace-plan-versus-racist-peace-plan-of-genocidal-war-criminals-trump-netanyahu/ .
Dr Gideon Polya taught science students at La Trobe University, Melbourne, Australia over 4 decades. He published some 130 works in a 5 decade scientific career, notably a huge pharmacological reference text “Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds” (2003). He has also published “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” (2007, 2021), “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History” (1998, 2008, 2022), “US-imposed Post-9-11 Muslim Holocaust & Muslim Genocide” (2020), “Climate Crisis, Climate Genocide & Solutions” (2020), “Free Palestine. End Apartheid Israel, Human Rights Denial, Gaza Massacre, Child Killing, Occupation and Palestinian Genocide” (2024), and contributed to Soren Korsgaard (editor) “The Most Dangerous Book Ever Published – Dangerous Deception Exposed!” (2020). For images of Gideon Polya’s huge paintings for the Planet, Peace, Mother and Child see: http://sites.google.com/site/artforpeaceplanetmotherchild/ .
